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Has Novavax Stock Run Its Course?

Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) inventory has declined by about 20% during the last ten buying and selling days, though it remained roughly flat during the last week. The inventory presently trades at about $177 per share. There are a few elements driving the latest sell-off, together with the postponement of a Covid-19 vaccine take care of the E.U. on account of some manufacturing points and decrease investor curiosity in vaccine shares, with the tip of the pandemic now in sight. Novavax’s
11x rally during the last 12 months and its comparatively excessive valuation additionally makes it very delicate to any information flows.

So what’s the longer-term outlook for the inventory? We predict Novavax inventory stays dangerous for long-term traders. Whereas Covid-19 photographs from Moderna, Pfizer
, and AstraZeneca have been available on the market for months now, Novavax’s vaccine hasn’t been accepted to be used but. The shot is barely more likely to be cleared to be used within the U.Okay. within the coming weeks and with the enrollment for late-stage U.S. trials accomplished solely in late February, it might take longer for the shot to be accepted and rolled out within the U.S. Because of this Novavax is more likely to miss out on profitable early gross sales. For perspective, a few third of the U.S. inhabitants and about half the U.Okay inhabitants has already acquired at the least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine. [1] The marketplace for Covid-19 photographs will solely get extra aggressive as time goes on. It’s probably that vaccine gross sales will peak this 12 months, with provide solely probably to enhance going ahead. For instance, Pfizer intends to provide about two billion doses of its vaccine this 12 months, noting that it ought to have the capability to provide as many as three billion doses in 2022. That is more likely to restrict the pricing energy and earnings potential of Novavax’s vaccine. Furthermore, it stays to be seen if Novavax’s growth pipeline, which is basically centered on vaccines for infectious ailments, can assist its inventory publish this.

See our indicative theme of  Covid-19 Vaccine stocks which incorporates U.S.-listed pharma and biotech corporations. The theme is up nearly 13x since late 2019.

[2/17/2021] Is Novavax Inventory Too Dangerous At $260?

Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) inventory has had a stellar run, greater than doubling since early January 2021 pushed by promising efficacy knowledge for its Covid-19 vaccine. The inventory can be up about 30x during the last 12 months. After such a large rally, is Novavax inventory trying overvalued? Whereas it’s troublesome to provide a definitive reply, we predict the dangers are actually trying a lot increased on the present valuation. Certain, the corporate’s Covid-19 shot is extremely efficient (95.6% efficient in opposition to the unique pressure), is less complicated to retailer, and can be more likely to be comparatively extra reasonably priced. Nevertheless, Novavax might miss out on extra profitable U.S. gross sales, and it’s additionally not clear if its pipeline can assist its valuation post-Covid-19.

See our indicative theme of  Covid-19 Vaccine stocks which incorporates U.S.-listed pharma and biotech corporations. The theme is up nearly 20x since late 2019.

The Novavax shot is considerably late to the race. Whereas the corporate has filed for approval within the U.Okay, it solely just lately accomplished enrollment for its part 3 trials within the U.S. – which is more likely to be one of many extra profitable markets for vaccines. Whereas the corporate is asking the FDA to start out evaluating its shot primarily based on the U.Okay. knowledge because it carries out late-stage U.S. trials, it ought to nonetheless take a few extra months earlier than it receives emergency approval, by when a large proportion of the inhabitants might already be vaccinated. So far about 40.2 million Individuals have acquired at the least one dose and dosing is going on at a fee of about 1.7 million per day, per the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker. Though Novavax already has an order for 100 million doses with the U.S. authorities, it might miss out on the potential upside for extra doses. As an example, Pfizer and Moderna – who each have accepted vaccines – are actually more likely to provide an extra 100 million doses every to the U.S. Novavax might show extra fashionable within the low and middle-income markets, the place vaccination drives are simply beginning off, though these markets will probably be far much less profitable. Per consensus estimates, Novavax gross sales are more likely to stand at about $3.2 billion this 12 months, in comparison with Moderna which is more likely to promote over $10 billion value of its Covid-19 vaccine.

Now Novavax’s $17 billion market cap implies that it’s buying and selling at a bit of over 5x consensus 2021 income – not too excessive for a biotech inventory poised to publish massive progress this 12 months. Nevertheless, Coronavirus vaccine gross sales will probably peak in 2021 and it stays to be seen if Novavax’s growth pipeline, which is targeted on vaccines for infectious ailments, can assist its earnings publish this. The corporate has only one different product that’s near the market – specifically its Nanoflu vaccine, which reported optimistic part 3 knowledge final March. Whereas this vaccine might grow to be a supply of recurring income for the corporate, it most likely gained’t be too worthwhile on condition that seasonal flu vaccines are sometimes not very excessive margin. That is additionally a cause that almost all massive pharma corporations have proven little curiosity on this comparatively high-volume market.

[2/4/2021] Why Did Novavax Inventory Double Over The Final 5 Days?

Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) inventory has had a stellar run, rising by 117% during the last 5 buying and selling days. The inventory is up a whopping 40x during the last 12 months. The latest beneficial properties come on the again of promising efficacy knowledge regarding the corporate’s late-stage Covid-19 vaccine trials within the U.Okay. The shot proved 89.3% efficient general, and 95.6% efficient in opposition to the unique pressure of the Novel Coronavirus, with no critical antagonistic occasions, placing it on observe for approval within the U.Okay. The corporate can be asking the U.S. FDA to guage the vaccine for emergency use primarily based on the U.Okay. knowledge, because it continues part 3 trials within the U.S.

So is Novavax inventory set for additional beneficial properties? It appears to be like fairly probably. Primarily based on our machine studying mannequin, which analyzes 5 years of inventory value knowledge, Novavax inventory has a 60% likelihood of an increase over the following month (21 buying and selling days). See Novavax Stock Chances of a Rise.  With its efficacy and security are actually confirmed, we consider the Novavax vaccine will emerge very fashionable. It’s apparently simple to retailer and distribute and cheaper than rivals Moderna and Pfizer’s photographs. Novavax has additionally lined up lots of manufacturing capability. (See replace under) Novavax revenues are projected to leap to over $3 billion in 2021, per consensus estimates. This could give the corporate the money to spend money on advancing its pipeline, which is targeted on vaccines for infectious ailments. Novavax has eight candidates in its pipeline other than the Covid-19 vaccine. Its flu vaccine NanoFlu reported optimistic knowledge from its part 3 research final 12 months and it seems fairly probably that it might go on to realize regulatory approval.

[1/29/2021]Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) has stated that its Covid-19 shot is 89.3% efficient, primarily based on interim knowledge from its part 3 scientific trials performed within the U.Okay.  [2] The corporate expects to file for emergency authorization with U.Okay. regulators within the coming months. Whereas the reported efficacy numbers appear to place the vaccine barely behind Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA), who’ve rolled out vaccines which are roughly 95% efficient, we predict the Novavax shot holds extra promise for a few causes. Firstly, Novavax’s two-dose shot has proven efficacy in opposition to the brand new strains of the Coronavirus discovered within the U.Okay. and South Africa, making it the primary firm to show this in scientific trials. So whereas the 89% determine appears to be like barely decrease than Pfizer and Moderna’s reported outcomes, the Novavax shot is at 95.6% effectiveness in opposition to the unique virus — proper in step with the 2 rivals. The shot also needs to be simpler to distribute, contemplating that it doesn’t should be saved in super-cold temperatures, not like Pfizer’s mRNA primarily based vaccine. Novavax’s vaccine can be more likely to be extra moderately priced – a take care of the U.S. authorities noticed every dose priced at about $16, versus as a lot as $37 per dose for Moderna’s vaccine. Crucially, the corporate has additionally lined up lots of manufacturing capability, collaborating with the world’s largest vaccine producer Serum Institute of India with plans to provide its vaccine at a fee of two billion doses a 12 months ranging from mid-2021. See our updates under for extra particulars on the Novavax shot.

See our indicative theme of  Covid-19 Vaccine stocks which incorporates U.S.-listed pharma and biotech corporations. The theme is up about 4x during the last 2 years.

[1/27/2021] Novavax UpdatesNovavax’s (NASDAQ: NVAX) experimental Covid-19 shot is being carefully watched, given some promising early-stage knowledge and the corporate’s transfer to line up vital manufacturing capability. Right here’s a fast overview of what has been taking place with Novavax inventory in latest weeks. Firstly, the corporate is seeking to increase as a lot as $500 million in fairness, in a transfer that ought to enhance its liquidity place and assist fund its R&D spending. That is most likely a sensible transfer, as Novavax inventory is up nearly 15x during the last 12 months, with its market cap standing at about $8 billion. Novavax additionally has three efficacy/security research of its Covid-19 shot underway within the U.Okay, South Africa, and the U.S., with some preliminary efficacy knowledge anticipated to come back out in a number of weeks. The corporate could possibly be seeking to hedge its place earlier than the information readout. Individually, curiosity within the vaccine seems to be growing. Novavax has finalized an settlement with the Canadian authorities to produce as many as 76 million doses of its Covid-19 vaccine and there have additionally been reviews that South Korea is in talks to purchase round 40 million doses of the Novavax vaccine. Novavax inventory has fared comparatively nicely 12 months so far, rising by about 12% for the reason that starting of January. See our indicative theme of  Covid-19 Vaccine stocks which incorporates U.S.-listed pharma and biotech corporations. The theme is up about 4x during the last 2 years.

[1/4/2021] Why Did Novavax Inventory Decline 20% In December? 

Vaccine specialist Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) – which is seen as a key participant within the Covid-19 vaccine house – noticed its inventory value decline by about 20% over December. Listed below are a number of doable causes for the decline.

Covid-19 vaccines by Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) acquired emergency approval from the U.S. FDA in December and inoculation drives have already begun within the U.Okay and the U.S. with these international locations seeking to get their residents vaccinated as shortly as doable. As an example, the U.S. says that each American who needs a Covid-19 vaccine ought to have one by June. This probably signifies that demand for the Novavax vaccine – which is barely more likely to be accessible, topic to approval, in Q1 2021 or later – shall be considerably restricted within the nation. Whereas Novavax has provide agreements with the U.S. and Australia, the corporate won’t see a lot upside in developed markets.

Novavax introduced that it was commencing part 3 scientific trials for its novel coronavirus vaccine within the U.S. and Mexico final week. Whereas that is excellent news, contemplating that Novavax noticed a number of delays in beginning late-stage U.S. research amid manufacturing challenges, there are issues whether or not the corporate will have the ability to meet its goal of signing up 30k volunteers when there are two extremely efficient vaccines already accessible out there. For instance, potential volunteers could be involved that they’re given a placebo or that Novavax’s candidate could possibly be much less protecting or even when their involvement within the trial might affect their capacity to take one other vaccine.

See our indicative theme on Covid-19 Vaccine stocks for extra particulars on the efficiency of key U.S. primarily based corporations engaged on Covid-19 vaccines.

[Updated 12/23/2020] What Are The Dangers For Novavax?

Vaccine specialist Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) has seen its inventory value soar by roughly 25x 12 months so far. Whereas a part of the beneficial properties have been pushed by encouraging outcomes for part 3 trials of the corporate’s NanoFlu flu vaccine again in March, a bulk of the worth appreciation is as a result of firm’s growth of a Covid-19 vaccine candidate. Whereas we mentioned a few of the deserves of the Novavax vaccine in our earlier replace (see under), on this notice, we check out a few of the key dangers that it might face.

Whereas Novavax entered the Covid vaccine race within the Spring, together with Moderna and Pfizer/BioNtech who’ve now began rolling out their vaccines, the corporate has confronted delays in its timeline. The primary readouts from its part 3 trials are anticipated round Q1 2021 – probably one quarter behind the entrance runners. Solely after these outcomes can be found will the corporate have the ability to file for emergency approval and rollout its vaccine. Whereas this might not be an enormous deal contemplating that there’s sufficient room for a number of Covid vaccines, Novavax may miss out on comparatively extra profitable orders from developed markets. As an example, the U.S. is now anticipated to extend its order for Pfizer’s vaccine to a different 100 million doses.

Margins for the vaccine may be a priority. Novavax’s vaccine is predicated on subunits – basically utilizing a fraction of the virus – and the manufacturing course of is outwardly extra advanced in comparison with the tactic utilized in messenger RNA vaccines together with Moderna’s. This might doubtlessly make the Novavax vaccine costlier to fabricate. Primarily based on a provide settlement with the U.S. authorities, the Novavax vaccine shall be priced at about $16 per dose, under the $19.50 for Pfizer’s vaccine and as a lot as $37 per dose for Moderna’s. The possibly extra advanced manufacturing course of and decrease costs might imply that margins could be decrease.

[Updated 12/2/2020] Does Novavax Covid Vaccine Nonetheless Matter?Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX) inventory noticed some volatility after the corporate stated that it had rescheduled its Section-3 scientific trial within the US, indicating that it might start within the coming weeks, as a substitute of beginning in November. This marks the second time that the corporate has delayed its U.S. trials, amid some challenges with scaling up manufacturing. Whereas the corporate presently has late-stage trials underway within the U.Okay, with a readout anticipated in Q1 2021, Novavax considerably trails frontrunners Pfizer and Moderna who’ve proven extraordinarily excessive efficacy charges of roughly 95% and have already utilized for emergency approval with the U.S. FDA. Contemplating that the Novavax vaccine could possibly be at the least one quarter behind the frontrunners, will there be a spot out there for the Novavax vaccine even when it proves secure and efficient and wins regulatory approval? We consider the reply is sure, for a number of causes.

Whereas the Novavax vaccine may arrive later than anticipated, it nonetheless holds promise. Firstly, primarily based on knowledge from early trials there are indicators that it could be extremely efficient. For instance, the antibody responses for the Novavax vaccine have been meaningfully stronger than different vaccines which have been reported at the moment, per knowledge from its Australian trials that have been accessible in August. [3] The vaccine also needs to be simpler to distribute, because it solely must be saved at refrigerated temperatures, not like Pfizer’s vaccine which must be saved at ultra-cold temperatures. Novavax’s vaccine may also be extra moderately priced. Primarily based on a provide take care of the U.S. authorities, the vaccine’s value is estimated to be about $16 per dose, in comparison with as a lot as $37 per dose for Moderna’s vaccine and $19.50 for Pfizer’s. If all goes nicely, Novavax might additionally scale up manufacturing pretty shortly. In September Novavax reached an settlement with the Serum Institute of India, one of many largest vaccine producers on the planet, boosting the corporate’s capability to as a lot as 2 billion doses a 12 months ranging from mid-2021. [4]

Novavax’s vaccine might additionally emerge fashionable in low and middle-income markets. Whereas the Oxford-AstraZeneca’s vaccine – which is more likely to be priced at a number of {dollars} per dose – is seen as key to preventing the pandemic in rising markets, it now faces questions relating to the best way part 3 trials have been dealt with, doubtlessly leading to delays and apprehension amongst governments. This might make the Novavax vaccine – which will be produced at scale and simply distributed – fashionable if the pricing is suitably adjusted.

[Updated 11/4/2020] Covid-19 Vaccine shares

Our indicative theme of Covid-19 Vaccine stocks – which features a various set of U.S.-based pharma and biotech corporations creating Covid vaccines – is up by about 560% year-to-date, on an equally weighted foundation, in comparison with the S&P 500 which has gained nearly 4% over the identical interval. Whereas most vaccine shares declined final week, amid a broader sell-off within the markets, they’re more likely to come again into the highlight as efficacy knowledge from late-stage trials is predicted from frontrunners Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Moderna (NASDAQ: MRNA) within the coming weeks. Under is a little more on the businesses in our theme of Coronavirus Vaccine stocks and their relative efficiency.

Novavax (NVAX), a vaccine growth firm, started late-stage trials of its Covid vaccine within the U.Okay in September, and large-scale part 3 trials are attributable to start within the U.S. and Mexico this month. Whereas the corporate doesn’t have every other merchandise available on the market but, its flu vaccine NanoFlu could possibly be prepared for potential FDA approval. The corporate has acquired about $1.6 billion in funding from the Federal authorities. The inventory has soared 2,000% year-to-date.


Moderna (MRNA) , a clinical-stage biotech firm, is finishing up part 3 trials of its Covid-19 vaccine, finishing enrollment of 30,000 contributors. The corporate is more likely to have knowledge on whether or not its vaccine works or not by this month, and has famous that it might search emergency approval from the FDA if the vaccine is at the least 70% efficient. The inventory is up 253% this 12 months.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Not like most different vaccine candidates, that are more likely to require two photographs, J&J is focusing on a single-dose vaccine. Whereas the corporate needed to pause trials in mid-October after an sickness was reported in a volunteer, the corporate is now making ready to renew trials. The inventory is down by -5.1% this 12 months.

Pfizer (PFE) is working with German companion BioNTech on a Covid-19 vaccine. The corporate is more likely to have efficacy knowledge from late-stage trials accessible shortly. The corporate might provide about 40 million doses in america in 2020 if the information is optimistic and regulators approve the vaccine. The inventory is down by about -7.6% this 12 months.

Whereas Novavax inventory might have moved, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities that may supply engaging buying and selling alternatives. For instance, you’ll be shocked how the inventory valuation for Lowe’s vs. D.R. Horton exhibits a disconnect with their relative operational progress. You will discover many such discontinuous pairs here.

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  1. Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker []
  2. Novavax Press Release []
  3. Will a small, long-shot U.S. company end up producing the best coronavirus vaccine?, Science []

Novavax Press Release []

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